Stockpiling is another response. DeGroote Nelson said some customers buy germanium before designs are even finalised in order to ensure availability when production begins.
Recycling is yet another route being taken by US-based Lattice Materials, which uses germanium to produce crystals for displays in fighter jets, tanks and other military equipment.
"We don't see supply loosening up anytime in the near-term," company president Travis Wood told Reuters.
"Every data point we've seen shows prices to at least stay at current high levels or even continue the upward trend," Wood said.
Belgium's Umicore UMI.BR has also been working with STL, a unit of Gécamines that processes mining waste in the Democratic Republic of Congo, to boost germanium recovery.
As the race to build new supply gathers momentum, the pressure from ever rising demand means some producers say they are already playing catch-up.
In Greece, METLEN MTLN.L, which has begun pilot-scale production and aims to produce 50 tons of gallium annually by 2028, says demand from potential customers now already exceeds that target several times.
In April, Australia and the US pledged over $3.5 billion to support a range of critical minerals projects, including gallium and germanium, nearly doubling an initial amount agreed last year.
Underscoring the need for that support, S&P Global expects ex-China gallium supply capacity to total 20 tons by the end of 2026, leaving a supply gap of about 678 tons. Non-Chinese germanium metal production is seen at 31 tons, or 177 tons short of demand.
Jack Bedder, founder and director of consultancy Project Blue, told Reuters that the emergence of credible projects with government support offers a chance for greater diversification, but the economies of scale still favour China with its enormous capacity and production costs new Western projects will struggle to match.
"We think a material reduction in dependence is achievable over five years, but eliminating dependence on China is much less realistic."
Government support such as price floors will probably be needed to bring new supply and ensure its long-term commercial viability, said Piyush Goel, consultant at London-based consultancy CRU.
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