Nike Sees 20% China Revenue Drop; Price Target Cut to $55 After CFO Surprise
NKE•BTIG cut Nike's price target to $55 from $75 while forecasting a 20% Q4 revenue drop in Greater China. BNP Paribas labeled Nike’s plan to bar key Chinese distributors from online sales by 2027 a strategic misstep, while Citi questioned the timing of its CFO transition.
1. BTIG Lowers Price Target
BTIG reduced Nike’s price target from $75 to $55 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing intentional sell-in cuts and marketplace cleanup actions that are expected to drive a 20% revenue decline in Greater China for fiscal Q4.
2. China Online Sales Restriction Plan
Nike’s reported plan to bar key Chinese distributors from selling products online starting January 1, 2027 has been labeled a strategic misstep by BNP Paribas, which urged clear explanation of the intended shift to the company’s flagship site for Chinese consumers.
3. Surprise CFO Transition
Citi raised concerns over the timing of Nike’s CFO transition ahead of its June 30 Q4 earnings report and fall analyst day, keeping a Neutral rating and $47 target while suggesting the move indicates efforts to ‘right the ship’ and may delay the analyst meeting.
4. Stock Impact and Outlook
Shares of Nike fell 2% on Thursday, extending a four-session losing streak as analysts reassess positions ahead of the fiscal Q4 results; investors will focus on Greater China recovery progress and the effects of leadership changes.
