Nio December Deliveries Jump 72.9% YoY as Shares Rally 25.6%
Nio’s shares have surged 25.6% year-over-year, including a 13% weekly gain after China extended EV trade-in subsidies through 2026 and the company issued a strong preliminary Q4 outlook. The automaker delivered 31,138 vehicles in December (+72.9% YoY) and plans to double 2025 shipments from 165,000 units.
1. Chinese Government Extends Electric Vehicle Trade-In Incentives
In late December, China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Finance confirmed that vehicle trade-in subsidies for electric models will continue through 2026. Under the updated policy, buyers who scrap older vehicles and purchase an EV receive rebates equal to low double-digit percentages of the purchase price. This extension reversed investor fears of a sudden drop-off in support and contributed to a 13.0% share price increase for Nio over the prior week, driving year-over-year gains of 25.6%.
2. Strong Preliminary Q4 Delivery and Revenue Outlook
Nio reported that December vehicle deliveries totaled 31,138 units, a 72.9% increase from December 2023, bringing full-year 2024 deliveries to 221,970 units — up 38.7% versus 2023. On this basis, the company’s preliminary fourth-quarter revenue is projected to exceed CNY 20 billion, marking sequential growth of nearly 20%. Operating losses for 2024 widened to CNY 22.7 billion, but the rapid delivery ramp and improving gross margins (up approximately 4 percentage points year-over-year) underscore accelerating operational leverage.
3. Expansion of Battery Swap Network and International Footprint
By the end of 2025, Nio plans to operate more than 4,000 battery swap stations, including at least 1,000 locations outside mainland China. As of December 2024, the company had completed its first overseas swap station in Hungary and established service centers in Germany, Norway and the Netherlands. This network expansion supports Nio’s strategy to alleviate range anxiety and differentiate its battery-as-a-service offering, which already accounts for over 20% of average revenue per vehicle in key urban markets.
4. Five-Year Revenue and Stock Price Projections
24/7 Wall St. forecasts Nio’s revenue to grow from CNY 97.1 billion in 2025 to CNY 189.5 billion by 2030, with vehicle deliveries doubling between 2023 and 2025. Assuming a price-to-sales multiple rising from 1x in 2025 to 2x by 2030, the firm projects a year-end share price of $7.34 in 2026 (33.5% upside) and $23.56 in 2030 (328.4% upside). These estimates reflect continued market share gains in China (from 2% of the new energy vehicle segment in 2023) and accelerated international sales growth.