In December, China’s National Development and Reform Commission confirmed that EV trade-in incentives will be extended into 2026, providing low double-digit percentage rebates for buyers who scrap older vehicles and purchase electric models. This policy boost coincided with Nio’s robust preliminary fourth-quarter outlook, which the company indicated would surpass consensus revenue estimates. Following these announcements, Nio shares posted a weekly gain of 13.0%, contributing to a 25.6% increase in the stock’s value over the past year and a 60.4% rise compared with six months ago.

Nio delivered 31,138 vehicles in December 2024, a 72.9% year-over-year increase, bringing full-year 2024 deliveries to 221,970 units, up 38.7% from 2023. Cumulative deliveries reached 671,564 through December 31. To alleviate range anxiety, Nio plans to build over 4,000 battery-swap stations by the end of 2025, with at least 1,000 located outside China. The company inaugurated its first European swap station in Hungary in 2022 and has since opened multiple service centers across Austria, Germany and other key markets, positioning Nio for continued international market penetration.

Of the 27 analysts covering Nio, approximately half maintain buy recommendations, with a mean price target of 6.73, suggesting upside of more than 22% from current levels; the highest target stands at 9.18. At 24/7 Wall St., projections assume revenues of 97.05 billion CNY in 2025 and 114.17 billion CNY in 2026, applying a price-to-sales multiple of 1× for 2026 to derive a year-end share price target of 7.34—implying a potential 33% gain—followed by progressive multiples leading to a 2030 target of 23.56, reflecting sustained revenue growth and market share gains.