Nomura Economists Urge Stimulus after China April Investments Shrink 1.6%
NMR•Nomura economists led by Ting Lu reported China’s April fixed-asset investment shrank 1.6% year-on-year and industrial output rose just 4.1%, the weakest pace in nearly three years. They urged Beijing to adopt bolder fiscal or monetary stimulus ahead of a July Politburo meeting to stabilize growth.
1. China’s April Growth Data
Official figures showed fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the first four months year-on-year, while industrial production grew 4.1% in April, marking its weakest increase since mid-2023. Retail sales rose only 0.2%, the slowest advance since December 2022, underscoring a broad domestic slowdown.
2. Nomura Economists’ Analysis
Nomura’s research team, led by Ting Lu, noted that export strength is no longer offsetting weak consumption and investment. They cautioned that without policy intervention, the economy risks further deceleration as global energy costs and credit demand remain subdued.
3. Implications for Markets and Policy
Nomura analysts recommended that Beijing consider fiscal or monetary easing at the Politburo meeting in July to shore up growth. Such stimulus could reinvigorate domestic demand, support commodity and bond markets, and influence trading volumes across Asian equity and currency desks.
