Northrop Grumman Readies Jan. 27 Q4 Earnings Release with Updated Analyst Forecasts

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Northrop Grumman will report fourth-quarter 2025 results before market open on Tuesday, Jan. 27. Leading Wall Street analysts have updated their EPS and revenue forecasts ahead of the release.

1. Strong Q4 Earnings Propel Northrop Grumman to New Highs

Northrop Grumman reported fourth-quarter earnings of $7.23 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate by $0.26. Revenue for the period reached $11.71 billion, up 9.6% year-over-year and topping analyst expectations by $100 million. The company delivered a return on equity of 25.5% and maintained a net margin of 9.8%, reflecting sustained pricing power in its core defense segments. Trading volume surged to over 900,000 shares as the stock broke out of a multi-month consolidation and set a new 52-week high following the announcement.

2. 2026 Guidance Falls Short but Free Cash Flow Shines

For fiscal 2026, management guided to earnings per share in the range of $27.40 to $27.90, below the street consensus of $28.85. Revenue is expected between $43.5 billion and $44.0 billion, slightly shy of the consensus forecast, while free cash flow is forecast at $3.10 billion to $3.50 billion. Investors reacted with a modest pullback, as shares slipped by approximately 2% in pre-market trading despite an 84% jump in free cash flow to $3.24 billion in Q4 and a reduction in capital expenditures to $662 million.

3. Analyst Upgrades and Sustainable Dividend Policy Support Outlook

Following the earnings release, at least four major brokerages raised their price targets and upgraded their ratings, including two firms moving to a 'buy' recommendation. Deutsche Bank set a new target that represents upside of more than 8% from current levels, while UBS increased its objective to reflect strengthened order backlog. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $2.31 per share, translating to an annualized payout of $9.24 and a yield of 1.4%, with a payout ratio of 33.2%. Institutional ownership remains high at 83.4%, underscoring confidence among large investors.

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