Novo Nordisk Forecasts 5–13% Sales Drop as Competitor Seizes Market Share
Novo Nordisk projects 2026 sales to decline by 5%–13% following a slowdown in semaglutide uptake. Its global incretin market share slipped to 39% at end-2025, down from near parity a year ago with rising competition from a rival’s blockbuster drug.
1. 2026 Sales Guidance and Forecasted Decline
Novo Nordisk announced full-year 2026 sales are expected to fall between 5% and 13% due to weaker demand for its flagship semaglutide products. The company cited pricing pressures and maturity in key markets as primary drivers of the anticipated revenue drop.
2. Incretin Market Share Erosion
At the close of 2025, Novo Nordisk’s share of the global incretin market stood at 39%, down from a near-equal split with its main rival one year earlier. Competitive gains were attributed to a new GLP-1 therapy that delivered nearly 50% greater weight loss efficacy, prompting physicians to favor the alternative treatment.