Novo Nordisk Shares Plunge 21% After CagriSema Underperforms Lilly’s Tirzepatide
Novo Nordisk shares plunged 21% this week, erasing fivefold gains since Wegovy’s 2021 approval after CagriSema delivered 20.2% weight loss versus 23.6% for Lilly’s tirzepatide, prompting five analyst downgrades. Management forecasts a 5–13% 2026 sales decline from U.S. price cuts, as oral Wegovy adoption tops 240,000 under Medicare coverage.
1. Market Reaction and Stock Performance
Novo Nordisk shares fell 21% this week, marking the steepest weekly slump since August and wiping out the cumulative gains achieved since Wegovy’s U.S. approval in 2021. This decline reflects renewed investor skepticism over the company’s growth trajectory in its core obesity franchise.
2. CagriSema Trial Results and Analyst Downgrades
Novo’s next-generation obesity shot CagriSema produced 20.2% average weight loss, trailing Lilly’s tirzepatide by 3.4 percentage points, triggering five analyst downgrades. Concerns have emerged over Novo’s reliance on its diabetes and obesity pipeline and the need to diversify ahead of patent cliffs in 2032.
3. 2026 Forecast and Oral Wegovy Adoption
The company projects a 5–13% decline in 2026 sales and profits due to U.S. price cuts, even as oral Wegovy adoption surpasses 240,000 patients under expanded Medicare coverage. This rapid uptake underscores strong demand but may not fully offset pricing pressures.