Novo Nordisk Targets Global Obesity Expansion as GLP-1 Sales Forecast Hits $150B
NVO•Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are expanding obesity-drug launches beyond the US, with oral Wegovy now in the UAE and Lilly’s Foundayo pill filing in 40 countries despite just 1-2% global GLP-1 use. TD Cowen lifted its 2030 GLP-1 sales forecast to $150 billion, projecting 59 million patients and 14% oral share.
1. International Rollout
Novo Nordisk has launched an oral version of Wegovy in the UAE, marking its first GLP-1 obesity treatment approval outside the US, and is preparing for European regulatory submissions. Eli Lilly is similarly pursuing approval of its Foundayo obesity pill in 40 countries to capture untapped international markets.
2. Cost and Access Barriers
Despite efficacy, only 1% to 2% of eligible patients worldwide use GLP-1 therapies due to high prices and limited insurance coverage. Physicians are combining lower doses of Wegovy or Zepbound with older stimulants like phentermine, while the arrival of generic semaglutide in India, Canada, and Brazil this year could pressure prices and expand access unevenly.
3. Upgraded 2030 Sales Forecast
TD Cowen raised its global GLP-1 sales forecast to $150 billion by 2030, up from $139 billion, projecting 59 million potential patients compared with 46 million previously. The firm anticipates oral formulations will account for 14% of total sales, offsetting expected price reductions with stronger demand.
4. Competitive Landscape
A broad field of pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, Amgen, Regeneron and others, are developing oral and injectable GLP-1 and obesity therapies, intensifying competition. Licensing agreements and M&A activity are accelerating as firms race to secure next-generation gut-hormone treatments.
