Novo Nordisk Warns of 5–13% Profit Decline as Shares Slide 20.5%
Shares fell 20.5% last month after Novo Nordisk projected a 5–13% drop in 2026 sales and operating profit at constant exchange rates, despite DKK206.2 billion in semaglutide revenue in 2025 (DKK53.7 billion in Q4). Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 challenge, pricing pressure and FX headwinds slowed growth while US rebate reversals mask core weakness.
1. Stock Performance and 2026 Outlook
Novo Nordisk shares declined 20.5% last month after management forecast a 5–13% drop in 2026 sales and operating profit at constant exchange rates. Reported guidance implies flat sales and modest profit growth once non-recurring benefits are stripped out.
2. Semaglutide Sales and Competitive Landscape
Semaglutide-based therapies generated DKK206.2 billion in 2025 revenue, including DKK53.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Sales momentum has slowed due to intensifying competition from Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs, widespread compounded semaglutide use and pricing challenges.
3. Financial Headwinds and One-off Adjustments
Foreign-exchange headwinds will further pressure reported results, and a one-off US rebate reversal of $4.2 billion was excluded from adjusted metrics, exposing core weakness in the business. Higher R&D and commercial spending are expected to constrain margins in 2026.
4. Pipeline and Future Growth Outlook
The approval of oral Wegovy has yet to offset the weaker outlook, and Lilly’s competing GLP-1 oral pill could further erode share. Novo Nordisk’s broader pipeline in rare diseases and obesity faces execution risks, with limited near-term catalysts to restore momentum.