Nu Holdings Targets 30% Revenue CAGR, Trades at 8x P/B on 41% EPS Growth

NUNU

Nu Holdings serves 127 million customers with a 30% RoE and funds lending via deposits, targeting ~30% revenue CAGR and ~41% EPS CAGR to 2027 through higher ARPAC and diversified loan mix. Shares trade at high multiples—P/B ~8x and forward P/E ~20–22x—limiting upside given geopolitical, policy and currency headwinds.

1. Strong Profitability and Customer Base Expansion

Nu Holdings has solidified its position as Latin America’s largest direct bank, growing its customer base to approximately 127 million since 2021. The company now generates returns on equity of around 30%, driven by a deposit-funded lending model that minimizes cost of capital. This scale has translated into positive operating leverage: adjusted net income margins have expanded by more than 500 basis points over the past two years, reflecting both efficiency gains and higher interest yield on loans.

2. Revenue Growth Outlook and ARPAC Enhancement

While revenue growth is expected to moderate from its recent high-growth levels to the mid-twenties percentage range by 2027, Nu’s average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) is projected to rise by over 10% annually through that timeframe. This ARPAC expansion stems from a diversified lending mix—personal loans, credit cards and small-business financing—with new offerings such as insurance products and investment accounts. Management forecasts that non-interest income will account for more than 35% of total net revenue by 2027, up from 28% in the most recent fiscal year.

3. Valuation Metrics and Risk-Reward Profile

At a price-to-book multiple of roughly 8x and a forward price-earnings ratio near 20x, Nu Holdings trades at a premium to both regional peers and global digital banking comparables. These valuation levels imply limited room for multiple expansion, despite robust execution and strong fundamentals. However, with earnings per share expected to compound at a 41% annual rate through 2027 and regional macroeconomic carry remaining supportive—particularly for platform-driven business models—Nu may offer one of the more attractive risk-reward profiles in Latin American financials if policy uncertainty and currency volatility subside.

Sources

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