Nvidia Accelerates Vera Rubin Chip Production and Projects China Sales Boost
Nvidia has accelerated full production of its Vera Rubin AI chips six months early, aiming to cut inference costs by 90% versus current Blackwell GPUs. CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia will exceed its $500 billion revenue forecast; renewed H200 chip exports to China could unlock up to $50 billion in sales.
1. Nvidia Posts Record Q3 Revenue and Profit Growth
In its fiscal third quarter ending October 26, Nvidia reported all-time high revenue of $57.0 billion, representing a 62% year-over-year increase, and diluted earnings per share of $1.30, up 67% from the prior year. Data center sales drove the surge, with that segment alone generating $51.2 billion—66% more than in the same quarter a year earlier. This performance exceeded consensus analyst estimates by more than $3 billion on the top line and $0.15 on EPS, underscoring Nvidia’s dominant position in AI hardware demand.
2. China Export Licenses Create Near-Term Uncertainty
Although Nvidia designed its H200 chips to comply with U.S. export regulations, approval of new sales licenses to mainland China remains pending. Management has indicated that anticipated shipments could total up to two million units this calendar year, but final volumes and timing hinge on U.S. government authorizations. Investors will be watching for approval announcements, as China accounted for roughly 20% of Nvidia’s data center revenue in 2025, and any delays could meaningfully compress projected quarterly growth rates.
3. Wall Street Maintains Bullish Ratings and Targets
Across 41 Wall Street firms tracking the company, the consensus rating remains “Strong Buy,” with 39 buy recommendations, one hold and one sell. The median 12-month price target stands at approximately $265, implying potential upside of over 40% from current levels. Meanwhile, the high-end forecast of $300 per share reflects an expected 62% gain, built on a projected fiscal 2026 EPS of $2.75 and a price-to-earnings multiple of 50.
4. Key Drivers and Risks Through 2026
Looking ahead, Nvidia’s growth hinges on (1) continued dominance in GPUs for AI training and inference, (2) expanded penetration of next-generation Blackwell and Rubin architectures—expected to reduce AI inference costs by up to 90%—and (3) the resumption of Chinese chip shipments, which could contribute an additional $50 billion in annual revenue under favorable licensing. Offsetting these tailwinds are risks including broader macroeconomic technology spending slowdowns, potential competition from custom AI accelerators by hyperscalers, and shifts in U.S. export policy that could constrain international sales.