Nvidia Guides Q4 Revenue to $65 Billion, Projects 65% Growth
Nvidia forecasts fiscal Q4 revenue of $65 billion, a 65% year-over-year jump from $39.3 billion following record Q3 sales of $57 billion. CFO Colette Kress says the company has visibility to $500 billion in chip revenue through 2026 driven by Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms.
1. ChatGPT Base-Case and Scenario Forecasts
OpenAI’s ChatGPT projects Nvidia’s share price rising to between $240 and $260 by January 31, 2025, driven by sustained demand for AI accelerators in data centers, particularly advanced GPUs for training and inference. In its bullish scenario, the model sees Nvidia trading as high as $320, contingent on stronger-than-expected earnings, rapid global AI infrastructure rollout and supportive market conditions for high-growth technology names. Conversely, a bearish scenario places the stock in the $180 to $210 range, reflecting risks from a potential slowdown in AI spending, intensifying competition or broader market volatility leading to valuation compression. ChatGPT’s midpoint estimate of $250 balances Nvidia’s dominant AI hardware position and robust order pipeline against valuation and macroeconomic headwinds.
2. Fiscal 2026 Q4 Revenue Guidance Underscores AI Tailwinds
Nvidia forecasted fiscal Q4 revenue of $65 billion, representing a 65% year-over-year increase over the prior period’s $39.3 billion and accelerating from the 62% growth reported in Q3. Management cited “demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed expectations,” highlighting strong orders for the Blackwell platform and the upcoming Vera Rubin architecture. The company disclosed visibility to half-a-trillion dollars in AI platform revenue through the end of calendar 2026, underscoring its leadership in supplying data center solutions amid growing enterprise and hyperscaler investments in generative and agentic AI applications.
3. Institutional Investors and Insider Moves Signal Confidence
During the third quarter, Financial Management Professionals Inc. increased its Nvidia stake by 13%, taking ownership to 31,670 shares valued at $5.91 million, while VCI Wealth Management boosted its position by 8.2% to 86,195 shares worth $16.08 million. State Street and Geode Capital each added millions of shares earlier in the year, reinforcing broad institutional backing that now accounts for over 65% of the company’s float. On the insider front, CFO Colette Kress and director Mark Stevens reduced their holdings modestly—sales totaling approximately $45 million and $40 million respectively—yet corporate officers still retain a combined 4.17% ownership, underlining alignment with long-term growth prospects.
4. CES 2026 Keynote to Spotlight AI Roadmap
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is slated to deliver the keynote at CES 2026 on January 5 in Las Vegas, where the company is expected to unveil updates to its AI compute roadmap, including performance benchmarks for the upcoming Vera Rubin GPU family and partner demonstrations of generative AI tools powered by Nvidia’s ecosystem. Investors will watch for any new platform announcements or strategic partnerships that could drive next-generation data center deployments and solidify Nvidia’s lead in high-performance accelerated computing.