Nvidia Shares Drop 5.9% As H200 China Export Review Stalls Sales
Nvidia shares slid 5.9% last week, dropping from about $190 to a February 4 pre-market price of $179.54 as U.S. State Department’s national security review stalled H200 chip exports to China, deterring orders and highlighting headwinds from Chinese domestic AI hardware development.
1. NVIDIA Shares Slide Nearly 6% in Late January Volatility
NVIDIA’s stock has faced a notable downturn since the start of 2026, registering a 5.9% decline over the last week of January. This pullback eroded gains built earlier in the month and left the share price trading roughly ten points below its recent peaks. Trading volumes spiked by 30% during the sell-off, indicating heightened investor caution as broader tech indices also experienced volatility.
2. China Export Hurdles Stall H200 Chip Revenue
The U.S. State Department’s national security review continues to delay clearance for NVIDIA’s H200 AI accelerators destined for China. Although presidential authorization was granted months ago, Beijing’s customs authority has since discouraged new orders, effectively banning purchases by major internet firms. As a result, Chinese demand—once projected to account for up to 15% of NVIDIA’s next-quarter data center revenue—remains sidelined until licensing conditions are finalized in Washington.
3. Uncertainty Over $100 Billion OpenAI Commitment
NVIDIA’s headline-grabbing pledge to invest $100 billion in OpenAI has not translated into immediate capital deployment, fueling investor anxiety about the true scale and timing of the outlay. Company disclosures reveal that only a fraction of the commitment has been earmarked for binding agreements, with the remainder contingent on AI project milestones. Analysts warn that delayed investment tranches could weigh on NVIDIA’s free-cash-flow projections for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
4. Data Center Utilization Risks Raise Long-Term Questions
Technology commentator Ed Zitron has highlighted a potential oversupply risk for NVIDIA’s data center chips, estimating that energy constraints could leave 25% of newly built AI data centers underutilized. Given that semiconductor equipment can depreciate rapidly, this scenario poses margin pressure if enterprise customers postpone capacity expansions. Investors will be watching NVIDIA’s guidance on utilization rates and capital expenditure plans when the company reports fourth-quarter results on February 25.