Nvidia’s position as an AI growth leader remains intact, but its recent spending spree has raised questions about capital allocation discipline. Since 2023, the company has committed more than $145 billion to strategic deals and ventures, including a $20 billion agreement to acquire AI start-up Groq and an unprecedented $100 billion partnership with OpenAI. These commitments exceed Nvidia’s current annual free cash flow by over 50%, prompting analysts to warn that further large-scale investments could dilute returns for shareholders. While the AI chip market is projected to reach $1 trillion in annual revenues by 2030, investors are closely watching Nvidia’s ability to balance aggressive expansion with prudent capital management.

At CES 2026, CEO Jensen Huang disclosed that H200 AI chips are once again rolling off Nvidia’s production lines following U.S. government approval for exports to China. Customer orders are already flowing in, signaling pent-up demand in a market that Nvidia estimates could be worth $50 billion annually. Although H200s trail the latest Blackwell generation in raw performance, they remain critical for Chinese tech firms racing to develop proprietary AI models. Huang indicated that purchase orders, rather than formal announcements, will mark China’s import green light, and he expects these sales to be incremental to the company’s existing two-year, $500 billion revenue forecast.