Nvidia to Ship H200 Chips to China by Mid-February, Secures Two Million Orders
Nvidia plans to start shipping H200 AI chips to China by mid-February using existing inventories and has secured orders for two million units in 2026. The company faces execution risks from pending Chinese regulatory approvals and potential production constraints between H200 and its newer Blackwell chips.
1. Return to China Market with H200 Shipments
Nvidia will begin shipping its H200 AI accelerator chips to China by mid-February, utilizing existing inventory built under U.S. export guidelines. The company has received orders totaling two million H200 units for calendar 2026, marking its first large-scale reentry into the Chinese market since export controls halted sales in 2025. In fiscal 2025, China represented 13% of Nvidia’s total revenue, and management believes that unlocking this market could add hundreds of billions of dollars in chip sales over the next several years.
2. Contribution to Revenue and Profitability
In the most recent quarter, Nvidia’s revenue jumped 62% year-over-year to $57 billion, driven primarily by demand for its Blackwell GPU platform. Gross margin remained above 70%, reinforcing the company’s ability to convert strong top-line growth into record profitability. Analysts estimate that the addition of H200 shipments to China could contribute an incremental $7 billion to $10 billion in revenue during fiscal 2026, assuming the two million unit order is fully delivered and priced in line with existing H200 average selling prices.
3. Production and Regulatory Risks
Nvidia has asked its manufacturing partner, TSMC, to ramp up H200 production while continuing to support volume shipments of Blackwell chips for global customers. Any delay in Chinese regulatory approval of the H200 or supply chain constraints at TSMC could create inventory build-up or missed revenue targets. The company must also manage wafer allocation carefully to avoid supply shortfalls for its U.S. hyperscale and enterprise partners, where GPU demand remains strong and backlogs extended into late 2026.