NY Fed finds little change in inflation expectations in July

Americans’ outlook for inflation was little changed in July compared to the prior month as households marked up their assessments of their current and future financial situations, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Friday.

Inflation a year from now is seen at 3.6% versus June’s 3.7% reading, while the inflation projections for three and five years from now held steady at 3.3% and 3%, respectively, the bank said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

The stable outlook for inflation comes as the public’s outlook has been buffeted by persistently high price pressures and lots of volatility in energy prices amid the shifting tides of the Middle East war. Current inflation is well above the Fed’s 2% target and officials are actively debating whether they’ll need to lift interest rates to guide price changes back to desired levels.

In the report, the New York Fed found that in July the public again expected future gasoline prices to be higher a year from now, while saying home price growth expectations held steady at 3.2%.

Households also upgraded their assessments of current and future finances in July relative to June while saying credit is harder to get now but will be easier to access in the future.

On the job market, the public said that as of July, future unemployment will be higher amid a rising prospect of losing a job, while the probability of finding a job having lost one got better in July relative to June.