NY Fed September survey finds public expecting more near-term inflation
TLT•Consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September, the highest since May 2023, from 3.6% in August. Three-year expectations edged up to 3.3%, five-year expectations held at 3%, and planned spending reached its highest reading since May 2023.
1. Inflation expectations rise
Respondents to the New York Fed’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations forecast inflation at 3.9% a year from now, up from 3.6% in August and the highest reading since May 2023. Three-year expectations rose to 3.3% from 3.2%, while five-year expectations remained at 3%. Households expected increases in gas, food, rent, medical care and college costs.
2. Mixed household outlook
Households downgraded their views of current and future finances and their ability to access credit, but became less worried about missing a debt payment. Respondents were less likely than in August to expect higher unemployment or an involuntary job loss in a year, and more confident they could find a job if they lost their current position. Planned future spending rose to its highest reading since May 2023.
