NY Fed survey finds Americans more worried about future jobless levels
SPY•Americans’ expectations that unemployment will be higher in a year reached their highest level since April 2020, according to the New York Fed’s October survey. Inflation expectations were unchanged from September at 3.9% for one year ahead, 3.3% for three years and 3% for five years.
1. Job market outlook
The New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations found that respondents were more likely to expect the unemployment rate to rise over the next year, reaching the highest reading since April 2020. They also saw a greater chance of involuntarily losing a job, though that expectation remained relatively low, and a higher chance of finding new work after a job loss.
2. Inflation and finances
One-year inflation expectations were 3.9%, three-year expectations were 3.3% and five-year expectations were 3%, all unchanged from September and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Respondents’ views of their current financial situations improved slightly, while expectations for their finances a year ahead and access to credit were unchanged.
3. Employment data
The survey followed a government report showing a 165,000 increase in October employment and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, alongside upward revisions to recent hiring data.
