OECD expects AI boom to help offset Middle East energy shock for now
SPY•Inflation outlook revised higher
In the OECD's baseline outlook, inflation in G20 economies was seen at 4.1% in 2026, up from 4.0% forecast in June. The OECD also raised its 2027 forecast to 3.6%, from 3.1% in June, which it said could force central banks to adjust interest rates if price pressures broaden out or growth falters.
Divergent outlooks across major economies
In the US, the world's largest economy, growth is seen at 2.2% this year and 2.1% in 2027, both upgrades from June, as heavy AI-related investment offsets weaker consumer spending. US inflation is projected to hit 3.6% in 2026, easing to 2.6% in 2027 with tariffs and higher energy prices weighing on household purchasing power and business costs.
China's growth is expected to slow to 4.5% this year and 4.2% in 2027, unchanged from June, as Beijing's curbs on excess industrial capacity weigh on investment even as consumption faces a gradual pick up in inflation.
