Oil Falls to $97 Brent and $95 WTI After Conditional Ceasefire Deal
BP•Brent crude dropped to $97 per barrel and WTI fell near $95 after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire pending Hezbollah’s halt, easing near-term supply risks. US crude inventories at Cushing fell for the sixth week to near minimum operating levels, tightening global supply and influencing BP’s outlook.
1. Price Movement
Brent crude retreated toward $97 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate held near $95 after adding almost 10% in the week’s first three sessions, reflecting market reactions to the Middle East ceasefire framework.
2. Ceasefire Agreement Details
Israel and Lebanon announced a conditional ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah halting hostilities, removing a key sticking point in broader negotiations and easing immediate upside risks for oil prices.
3. Inventory Levels Tighten
US crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma fell for a sixth consecutive week to near the minimum operating level, signaling a shrinking supply cushion and heightened sensitivity to production disruptions.
4. Supply Outlook
Although the ceasefire reduces near-term upside risks, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, prompting forecasts that Brent could surge to $130 per barrel in the fourth quarter as global inventories tighten.
