Oil Futures Hit 2025 Highs as Goldman Sees $18 Risk Premium
Crude oil futures jumped to their highest levels since early 2025, with Brent at $77.57 and WTI at $71.21 per barrel following escalating US–Iran hostilities. Goldman Sachs estimates an $18-per-barrel risk premium (roughly 25% of current prices), while the United States Oil Fund ETF had closed 2.73% higher before the conflict began.
1. Crude Futures Surge to Multi-Month Peaks
Crude oil futures climbed to their highest readings since early 2025 after a weekend of heightened US–Iran tensions. Brent crude traded at $77.57 per barrel and WTI at $71.21, pushing the front-month futures curve sharply upward as markets priced in potential supply disruptions.
2. Goldman Sachs Identifies 25% Risk Premium
Analysts project an $18-per-barrel risk premium, accounting for roughly 25% of current crude prices, driven by fears of a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Even a partial 50% flow reduction scenario would leave a $4 premium, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to Middle East shipping lane threats.
3. ETF Reaction and Technical Outlook
The United States Oil Fund ETF closed 2.73% higher on the Friday before conflict escalations, reflecting front-month WTI gains. Technical studies warn of stiff resistance near these levels and suggest potential choppy trading or a retracement once the initial shock subsides.