Oil market turmoil could last for years, executives say
USO•Oil executives said shipping disruptions, refinery cuts and depleted inventories could keep prices high beyond this year. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said replenishing global stockpiles could take up to two years, while ConocoPhillips Executive Chair Ryan Lance said oil demand may not recover until 2028 or 2029.
1. Disruption and inventories
Executives at a London conference said shipping bottlenecks, refinery output cuts and inventory drawdowns could prolong oil market turmoil. Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said conditions could remain “bedlam” through the end of the year and possibly 2027. Nasser said 3 billion barrels had been lost since the conflict began and 1 billion barrels had been withdrawn from global inventories.
2. Refined fuel shortfall
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said the world faced a shortfall of 6 million barrels per day of refined products. Kuwait’s crude exports had remained around 1 million barrels per day this year, while production fell from about 2.6 million to 2 million barrels per day.
3. Demand and price outlook
Lance said global oil demand may not recover from this year’s decline until 2028 or 2029, but would grow afterward. He said the US benchmark WTI oil price floor would rise to around $70 per barrel, with a mid-cycle price of $65 to $70, and that US production could exceed 14 million to 14.5 million barrels per day if prices remained strong. Brent traded just above $100 per barrel on Monday, while WTI was close to $90.
