Oil prices edge up as investors weigh US-Iran talks deadlock against lower demand

Futures were under pressure after forecasters revised down their oil demand outlooks as U.S.-Iran talks stall.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day, it said in its monthly oil market report.

The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand projections and now expects a 1.6 million bpd contraction this year. However, the Paris-based agency is also predicting a 4.3 million bpd drop in supply this year, and an overall 2026 deficit of around 1.27 million bpd.

Simon Wong, portfolio manager at Gabelli, said the demand cut was not surprising, given that refiners, particularly those in Asia, have been unable to secure enough crude supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and have therefore reduced refinery runs. The key question, he said, is the extent of the decline and how much reflects temporary demand management versus permanent demand destruction.