Oil Retreat Sends S&P 500 ETF Down 0.28% After 1.38% Gain
Oil prices dropped 4% (WTI to $90.75) and 5% (Brent to $93.64) after war assurances, sending the S&P 500 ETF down 0.28% premarket following a 1.38% gain. February retail sales rose 0.3% month over month and 6.2% year over year while small-business optimism slipped to 98.8 for a second month.
1. Oil Price Pullback and SPY Movement
Oil prices eased sharply after assurances of a short Iran conflict, with WTI falling 4% to $90.75 and Brent down 5% to $93.64 per barrel. This pullback reversed early gains and drove the S&P 500 ETF 0.28% lower premarket after Monday’s 1.38% advance.
2. February Retail Sales Growth
Retail sales data for February showed headline growth of 0.3% month over month and 6.2% year over year, driven by a 1.0% increase in digital products, 0.7% in clothing and accessories and 0.5% in health and personal care while home furnishings dipped 0.3%.
3. Small-Business Optimism Decline
The Small-Business Optimism Index fell to 98.8 in February, missing the 99.5 forecast and marking a second monthly decline. This reading remains within its recent 98–100 range but highlights waning confidence among smaller firms.
4. Upcoming Market Catalysts
Investors will watch existing home sales, forecast at 3.86 million units for February—the weakest level since October 2023—and Oracle’s after-hours results, where double-digit revenue and earnings growth is expected. Both events could sway ETF performance in the coming session.