Oil rises as investors weigh uncertainties around Iran war
USO•Brent rose 0.8% to $95.40 a barrel and U.S. crude gained 0.1% to $88.23 as investors assessed uncertainty over the Iran war. Analysts said escalation could push Brent to $110-$125, while the global market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September.
1. Crude prices edge higher
Brent futures rose 78 cents to $95.40 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 11 cents to $88.23 as of 0900 GMT on Thursday. Both benchmarks had fallen more than 8% in the previous session, settling at their lowest since August 31.
2. War outlook remains uncertain
Analysts said markets were weighing whether the U.S. midterm election results could affect President Donald Trump's next steps in the war with Iran. Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for renewed U.S. strikes to 60% from 65%, cut the probability of a deal to 10% from 20%, and raised the likelihood of a continued standoff to 30% from 15%. It said escalation could lift Brent to $110-$125 a barrel.
3. Supply and inventories
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to take unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz. JPMorgan estimated the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October. U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as demand reached its highest in a year, the Energy Information Administration said.
