That's because the world's oil safety cushion has been dramatically depleted.
During the 4.5-month conflict, governments, refiners and traders released record volumes of crude and fuel from emergency reserves to offset the loss of around 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of Middle Eastern exports. Those releases helped prevent the kind of price shock many analysts feared at the start of the war, but they came at a cost.
According to the International Energy Agency, observed global oil inventories fell by a cumulative 360 million barrels between March and May, equivalent to around 3.9 million bpd. Onshore stocks continued to decline in June, dropping by a further 96 million barrels, or roughly 3.2 million bpd.
The erosion has been particularly striking in the U.S.
Having exported record volumes of crude and refined products during the conflict, U.S. inventories have been drawn down to lows not seen in decades. Total crude and refined product stocks are at their slimmest since 2003, while gasoline inventories are at their lowest level for this time of year since 2012, leaving an exceptionally thin buffer against supply disruptions.
That vulnerability has not gone unnoticed in Washington.
Earlier this month, Vice President JD Vance argued that the U.S.-Iran agreement would provide the world with time to rebuild depleted oil reserves before any potential resumption of hostilities.
Based on current inventory levels, the world needs a lot more time.
For now, then, the oil market is probably right to assume that neither Trump nor Iran's hardline clerics are actively seeking another full-scale conflict in the Middle East.
The most likely outcome remains a face-saving compromise that allows each government to claim victory.
But that does not mean the danger has passed.
Both sides are engaged in high-stakes brinkmanship, which often produces miscalculations. A missile strike, a naval incident or an attempt to enforce rival claims over the strait could trigger an escalation neither side intends.
And unlike in February, when inventories were full and emergency reserves abundant, the global oil market has far less capacity to absorb another major shock.
That may prove to be the most important lesson investors are missing today.
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