OPEC further lowers 2026 global oil demand growth forecast

LONDON, July 13 - OPEC on Monday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day, a copy of its monthly report showed, marking the third straight downward revision.

The producer group continues to see a smaller impact on consumption since the Iran war started than other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency. OPEC said the world economy may do better in the rest of the year and raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2027.

The war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil routes, for months, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output. Output is starting to recover following the interim peace agreement between Iran and the United States, although renewed military strikes are reigniting concerns over shipments.

"The global economic growth dynamic in the first half of 2026 has remained broadly resilient," OPEC said in the report on its website.

"Potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide some upside for global growth in the second half of 2026 if energy markets and trade flows stabilize further."

The current forecast reduced the expected oil demand growth this year from 970,000 bpd previously. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.94 million bpd, up 210,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the closure of Hormuz made it impossible to lift production to agreed quota levels.

OPEC+ crude output averaged in June, up about from May, the report said, citing secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its production, as Gulf members began to resume output halted by the Iran war.