OpenAI’s $25B Ad Plan by 2030 Challenges Google as Shares Hit Records
Evercore ISI projects OpenAI’s ChatGPT ad business could generate $25 billion annually by 2030, potentially drawing commercial queries away from Google’s core ad network. Pershing Square’s Alphabet stake has gained $2.04 billion since Q3 2025 as shares set new all-time highs.
1. Ackman’s Alphabet Stake Delivers Over $2 Billion in Gains
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management has realized approximately $2.04 billion in combined gains on its Alphabet positions since the end of September 2025. As of the third-quarter 2025 13F filing, Pershing Square held 6.32 million Class C and 4.84 million Class A shares. Between late September and mid-January, the market value of those stakes rose from roughly $2.72 billion to about $3.69 billion, reflecting a near 75 percent increase. Ackman initially built his position in early 2023 when shares traded in the mid-80s, and the position has since appreciated by over 200 percent. His decision to trim 10 percent of Class A shares in Q3 spared some profits but leaves investors watching the next quarterly filing for signs of further adjustments to this high-conviction bet on Alphabet’s long-term growth trajectory.
2. Google Targets $385 Billion AI Shopping Market by 2030
Alphabet is laying the groundwork for a new AI-driven e-commerce channel leveraging its Gemini large-language models and the emerging Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP). UCP standardizes product metadata across major retailers and smaller merchants, reducing the risk of hallucinations and enabling AI agents to retrieve accurate pricing, availability and reviews. According to a Morgan Stanley analysis, agentic shopping could account for $385 billion in U.S. e-commerce sales by 2030. Google plans to integrate AI-powered shopping agents into its existing Shopping tab on Search and in its digital assistant, offering zero-click purchasing experiences that could drive incremental impulse sales. While Amazon’s ecosystem remains dominant, Alphabet believes its scale in search and advertising, combined with Gemini’s contextual understanding, positions it to capture a meaningful slice of the fast-growing agentic commerce segment.