Oppenheimer Sets $190 SpaceX Target, Raises Tesla Forecasts but Rules Out Merger
OPY•Oppenheimer initiated coverage of SpaceX ahead of its June 12 Nasdaq debut with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target implying 41% upside to a $2.5 trillion market cap. The firm also raised Tesla’s fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to $97.2B and EPS to $2.03, lifted 2026-28 energy storage forecasts by up to 3% and vehicle sales by 4%, and ruled out a near-term Tesla-SpaceX merger.
1. SpaceX Coverage Initiation
Oppenheimer became the first global brokerage to initiate coverage of SpaceX ahead of its June 12 Nasdaq debut, assigning an Outperform rating and setting a $190 price target that implies about 41% upside and a potential $2.5 trillion market capitalization within 12 to 18 months.
2. Tesla Fiscal 2026-28 Forecast Revisions
The firm raised Tesla’s fiscal 2026 revenue estimate to $97.2 billion from $94.5 billion and increased adjusted EPS to $2.03 from $2.00. It also boosted energy storage sales forecasts by 2% for the remainder of 2026 and by 3% for 2027-2028, while raising vehicle sales projections by 4% across 2026-28 on sustained EV demand.
3. Merger Outlook
Oppenheimer argued that separate public listings for Tesla and SpaceX best support Elon Musk’s long-term AI ambitions by providing diversified capital access and flexibility, and characterized a near-term merger as unlikely despite acknowledging potential supply-chain synergies in energy storage, servers, and data centers.
