Oracle Rated 'Buy' After 40% Drop as RPO Hits $523B
Oracle is rated 'Buy' after a 40% share pullback, with a $523 billion remaining performance obligation increasingly diversified by new Meta and Nvidia contracts reducing its OpenAI reliance. Management reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance of $67 billion and forecast an additional $4 billion in FY27 revenue.
1. Analyst Predicts Oracle as a Top Decade-Long Winner
Guggenheim analyst Mark Sue identified Oracle’s rapidly growing artificial‐intelligence infrastructure business and expanding recurring‐revenue base as key drivers of sustained outperformance over the next ten years. He highlighted that Oracle’s Deferred Revenue (Remaining Performance Obligations) now stands at $523 billion, up more than 60 percent over the past two years, and noted that high‐margin software subscriptions account for roughly 70 percent of that backlog. Though concerns have been raised about concentration risk with major cloud AI partners, Sue argued that new contracts with Meta and Nvidia—each contributing over $5 billion of incremental backlog—demonstrate a broadening customer base that will support mid-teens annual revenue growth through 2030.
2. Jim Cramer’s Bullish Mad Dash Take
In his daily ‘Mad Dash,’ CNBC’s Jim Cramer named Oracle among his top technology picks, citing its resilient enterprise database franchise and recent momentum in cloud infrastructure bookings. Cramer pointed to an 18 percent year-over-year increase in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue last quarter and emphasized the company’s shift toward higher-value AI services, which have driven average deal sizes up by 25 percent. He concluded that, despite a 40 percent pullback from peak levels, current valuation multiples already price in key risks and present an asymmetric upside opportunity for long-term investors.
3. Buy Rating Supported by Backlog Diversification and Guidance Reaffirmation
After a sharp 40 percent correction in the stock, several boutiques reinstated ‘Buy’ ratings, citing Oracle’s well-diversified $523 billion RPO and strong pipeline across cloud and license renewals. Management reaffirmed revenue guidance of $67 billion for fiscal 2026 and projected an additional $4 billion in top-line growth for fiscal 2027, driven by accelerating AI service adoption and enterprise database upgrades. Analysts noted that free cash flow conversion remains above 90 percent of net income, enabling continued share repurchases of roughly $10 billion annually and supporting an expanding dividend profile.
4. Dividend Policy and Income Stability
Oracle will distribute a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share on January 23, 2026, marking a 25 percent increase from the $0.40 paid in the first quarter of 2025. At the current payout ratio of 18.7 percent, the company retains ample capacity for future increases, and management has raised dividends in each of the past four years. Holders of 100 shares will receive $50 this quarter, translating into an annualized return of $200 per 100 shares. Investors can also expect a rapid price recovery—historically within 9.2 trading days—following the ex-dividend date.