Oshkosh Guides $11B 2026 Revenue With 6.7% EPS Shortfall, Cites NGDV Delays
Oshkosh Corporation forecast approximately $11.0 billion in 2026 revenue with $11.50 in adjusted EPS, missing consensus by 6.7% and guiding lower margins on its NGDV ramp. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 2.9% to $10.42 billion and adjusted EPS declined to $10.79 as a massive tariff cost increase and delayed NGDV deliveries—5,000 units versus a planned 50,000—crushed profitability.
1. Full-year 2025 Results and Guidance
Oshkosh’s full-year 2025 results showed revenue of $10.42 billion and adjusted EPS of $10.79, marking declines from 2024’s $10.73 billion and $11.74 EPS. Management then guided 2026 revenue of ~$11.0 billion with $11.50 in adjusted EPS, missing the $12.33 consensus.
2. NGDV Production Ramp Challenges
The USPS Next Generation Delivery Vehicle program faces an 18-24 month ramp delay, with only 5,000 units delivered by late 2025 versus a planned 50,000. High manufacturing overhead and a five-fold increase in tariff costs on imported parts have compressed the Transport segment margin to a projected 4.0%.
3. Access and Vocational Segment Trends
The Access segment backlog fell by $600 million year-over-year as rental customers delayed aerial equipment purchases amid elevated rates and construction uncertainty. In contrast, the Vocational segment delivered 14% operating margins in 2024, driven by fire apparatus and refuse collection trucks.
4. Valuation and Execution Risks
Shares trade near all-time highs despite the EPS miss and growth headwinds, implying market optimism requires flawless NGDV execution and margin recovery. Any further delays or cost overruns could erode valuations given the company’s capital-intensive growth investments.