Oshkosh’s solid defense wins and progress on AI-driven unmanned vehicles have failed to offset headwinds in its commercial backlog and Access segment. The company reported a 9% year-over-year decline in total backlog to $10.2 billion at the end of 2025, driven primarily by softer demand for fire-and-emergency Access vehicles, which saw revenue drop 5% from the prior year. Management trimmed its full-year 2025 revenue growth forecast to 3%–5% and reduced its adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $8.50–$8.80, down from prior guidance of $9.00. While Oshkosh has field-tested 15 AI-enabled autonomous transport prototypes with the U.S. Army, planned production remains limited to an initial batch of 50 vehicles through 2026, underscoring uncertainty around near-term revenue contribution from emerging tech.

At the International Armoured Vehicles Conference in Farnborough (January 20–22, 2026), Oshkosh Defense will display its combat-proven Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) platform, which has delivered over 24,000 units to the U.S. Armed Forces and 11 allied nations. As the sole OEM authorized for direct commercial sales to partner militaries, Oshkosh has secured a potential $2.0 billion in international follow-on sales through open architecture upgrades that reduce system integration time by 20%. Current operators include the Netherlands, Slovenia, Israel, Brazil and others, positioning Oshkosh to capture additional modernization programs valued at an estimated $500 million annually from 2026 through 2030.