Pagaya Closes $800M AAA ABS Deal, Beats EPS but Misses $349M Revenue
On February 4, Pagaya closed an $800 million AAA-rated personal loan ABS deal, surpassing its $600 million target by 33% with 32 institutional investors. Q4 2025 EPS was $0.80 versus $0.69 estimate and revenue hit $321 million against a $349 million forecast, prompting analysts to cut projections.
1. AAA-Rated ABS Transaction Exceeds Target
On February 4, Pagaya closed an $800 million AAA-rated personal loan ABS transaction, surpassing its $600 million goal by 33% with participation from 32 institutional investors. Since 2018 the company has issued $34.5 billion across 85 ABS deals, showcasing its capital markets execution.
2. $720M Point-of-Sale Forward Flow Agreement
On January 26, Pagaya finalized a forward flow agreement with Sound Point Capital to acquire up to $720 million in point-of-sale loans, marking its first POS forward flow deal. The partnership leverages Pagaya’s AI-driven credit decision platform to scale its consumer lending vertical.
3. Q4 2025 Financial Results
In Q4 2025, Pagaya reported EPS of $0.80, beating the $0.69 consensus by $0.11, while generating $321 million in revenue versus a $349 million forecast. The revenue shortfall highlights ongoing challenges in scaling loan origination volumes.
4. Analysts Trim Forecasts
Following the mixed quarterly performance and strong capital markets activity, analysts have reduced their 2026 earnings and revenue projections for Pagaya. The cuts reflect concerns over near-term growth momentum and margin pressures.