Palantir Faces 50% Upside, 70% Downside Projections, Harel Trims 19.9% Stake

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Analysts’ highest Palantir target implies 50% upside, while the lowest suggests 70% downside based on current forecasts. Harel Insurance trimmed its 3Q stake by 19.9% to 28,490 shares worth $5.19 million as insiders sold $167 million of stock over the past 90 days.

1. Divergent Analyst Outlook

Palantir’s share price currently sits roughly 17% below its one-year high, reflecting Wall Street’s divided sentiment. Among 29 analysts, the most bullish projection implies approximately 50% upside from current levels, while the most pessimistic target suggests nearly 70% downside. Consensus sits at a “Hold” rating with a median price target implying modest gains of around 3%. Recent rating changes include Morgan Stanley raising its target from 155 to 205 with an equal-weight recommendation, Citigroup upgrading to Buy with a target of 235, and CICC Research lifting its target to 150 while maintaining neutral status. Overall, the firm has one Strong Buy, six Buy, sixteen Hold and two Sell ratings.

2. Q3 Earnings Beat and Growth Metrics

In the third quarter, Palantir delivered adjusted earnings per share of 0.21, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.17, while revenue climbed 62.8% year-over-year to 1.18 billion, topping the 1.09 billion forecast. The company reported a 28.11% net margin and a return on equity of 15.48%. Management reiterated guidance for 0.31 EPS for the full fiscal year, underpinned by continued strength in both government and commercial segments. Palantir’s current price-to-earnings multiple stands at approximately 407, its price-to-earnings-growth ratio is 4.3, and the stock trades well above both its 50-day simple moving average of 178.13 and 200-day average of 172.02.

3. Institutional and Insider Trading Activity

Several institutional investors adjusted their Palantir positions in the latest quarter. Harel Insurance cut its stake by 19.9%, selling 7,076 shares and ending with 28,490 shares valued at about 5.19 million. Decker Retirement Planning increased its holding by 778.7% to 61,326 shares (11.19 million), Vanguard added 3.6% to hold 205.7 million shares (28.04 billion), and Truist Financial boosted its position by 4.2% to 537,000 shares (73.2 million). Watershed Private Wealth grew its stake by 75.3% to 7,798 shares (1.42 million), while Prentice Wealth initiated a position valued at roughly 550,000. On the insider front, two directors sold a combined 51,605 shares at average prices near 163, totaling about 8.4 million; insiders have offloaded over 1 million shares worth 167.4 million in the past 90 days, though they still retain 9.23% ownership.

Sources

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