Palantir’s U.S. Commercial Contracts Surge 300% to $1.3B, Citigroup Targets $235
In Q4, Palantir’s U.S. commercial total contract value jumped over 300% to a record $1.3 billion, helping revenue reach approximately $1.2 billion and GAAP net income hit $476 million as Rule of 40 soared to 114%. Additionally, Citigroup raised its price target to $235 per share, implying 32% upside.
1. U.S. Commercial Revenue Guidance Raised by 12%
Palantir Technologies announced it has increased its full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance by 12%, from an initial range of $1.60 billion–$1.65 billion to a revised range of $1.79 billion–$1.85 billion. The upgrade reflects stronger deal flow in its Gotham and Foundry platforms, with total contract value for new U.S. commercial agreements rising 35% year-over-year to $1.2 billion in the most recent quarter. Management highlighted that average deal size climbed from $4.5 million to $6.1 million, driven by multi-year deployments at Fortune 500 industrial and financial services clients.
2. Enterprise AI Demand Fuels Customer Expansion
Enterprise AI demand accelerated meaningfully in Q4, with Palantir adding 42 net new commercial customers, bringing its total to 312 active commercial accounts. Of those, 85 represent deployments of the Palantir AI Platform (AIP), up from 48 a year ago. Government segment growth also contributed, with U.S. defense and civil contracts generating $315 million in revenue, a 21% increase year-over-year. The mix shift toward higher-margin AI software lifted overall gross margin to 82.3%, compared to 79.7% in the prior-year quarter.
3. Full-Year Revenue and Free Cash Flow Outlook Lifted
In conjunction with its commercial guide upgrade, Palantir raised its full-year revenue outlook from $2.45 billion–$2.52 billion to $2.65 billion–$2.72 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 35%. The company also increased its free cash flow projection to a range of $560 million–$600 million, up from $500 million–$540 million previously. Palantir attributes the stronger cash flow conversion to improved collections on long-term contracts and operational leverage in its global delivery teams.