Pantera Capital sees US retaining robotics software lead over China
XLK•Pantera Capital expects the US to retain its robotics software lead, while Chinese manufacturers accounted for more than 90% of global humanoid production in 2025. It sees investment opportunities in data intelligence and says Chinese robotics software trails overseas competitors by at least one to two years.
1. Software and hardware gap
Pantera Capital expects US robotics software leadership to persist, with investment opportunities concentrated in data intelligence rather than collection capacity alone. Chinese manufacturers accounted for more than 90% of global humanoid production in 2025, while Chinese robotics software trails overseas competitors by at least one to two years.
2. Competition and deployment
The firm says short-term revenue pressures discourage foundational research, and robotics foundation models face commoditization risk that could shift competitive advantage toward deployment, post-training and high-quality data curation. Higher Western labor costs support stronger automation economics; Chinese humanoids remain largely confined to entertainment and other low-value commercial uses.
