Pembina Q4 EBITDA Drops 14% to CAD1.075 Billion, Guides CAD4.125–4.425B
Pembina’s Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA fell CAD179 million (14%) to CAD1.075 billion due to weaker marketing/new ventures, a new Alliance toll structure and non-recurring 2024 capital recoveries. Full-year EBITDA reached CAD4.289 billion with record volumes up 3%, and 2026 EBITDA guidance is CAD4.125–4.425 billion.
1. Q4 2025 Financial Results
Pembina reported Q4 earnings of CAD489 million and Adjusted EBITDA of CAD1.075 billion, down CAD179 million or 14% year-over-year. The decline reflected a CAD118 million shortfall in marketing and new ventures, impact from a new Alliance Pipeline toll structure and the absence of a CAD37 million capital recovery recognized in Q4 2024, partly offset by higher pipeline and facilities volumes.
2. Full-Year Performance and 2026 Outlook
For full-year 2025, Pembina posted net earnings of CAD1.694 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of CAD4.289 billion and adjusted operating cash flow of CAD2.854 billion (CAD4.91 per share). Management reiterated 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of CAD4.125–4.425 billion, implying roughly 5% CAGR in fee-based EBITDA per share from 2023-2026 and year-end leverage of about 3.7–4.0x (3.4–3.7x excluding Cedar LNG debt).
3. Growth Projects and Contracting Activity
Key expansions – RFS IV fractionator, Wapiti gas processing and K3 cogeneration – are on time and on or under budget, with commissioning imminent and RFS IV online in Q2. The Cedar LNG floating vessel is over 35% complete. Pembina recontracted and added more than 200,000 barrels per day of capacity in 2025, extended Alliance tolls for 10 years on 96% of capacity and sanctioned additional condensate expansion on the Peace Pipeline system.