Perpetual expects RBA rate rise in November as inflation pressures persist
TLT•Perpetual expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates in November as economists forecast third-quarter trimmed mean inflation of 1% quarter over quarter, above the RBA’s August forecast of 0.8%.
1. Rate outlook
Perpetual expects the RBA to raise interest rates in November, pushing up yields at the very short end of the Australian curve. A November increase would likely be followed by a pause until at least February, possibly May, as the RBA assesses five rate increases during 2026.
2. Global bond factors
Substantial AI investment is expected to keep US bond yields elevated, supporting global and Australian yields despite recent technology stock weakness. A resolution of the Middle East conflict could drive a sustained bond rally; Brent crude has reached around US$117 per barrel.
