Petrol prices push Swiss inflation higher, raising chances of rate hike
TLT•Swiss annual inflation rose to 1.5% in October, its highest level since December 2023, as petrol prices climbed 40% year on year. The increase raised the risk of a Swiss National Bank rate hike, though one economist does not expect an immediate move from 0%.
1. Inflation accelerates
Swiss annual inflation accelerated to 1.5% in October from 1.0% in September, exceeding economist forecasts for 1.3%. It was the highest annual increase since December 2023, with petrol prices 40% higher than in October 2025 as the Iran war tightened crude and refined-fuel supplies.
2. Rate outlook
Core inflation, which excludes energy, fuel and fresh and seasonal products, rose 0.5% year on year. Month-on-month inflation accelerated to 0.2% from 0% in September. The Swiss National Bank targets inflation of 0-2% and declined to comment on the figures.
3. Economist assessment
Julius Baer economist Sophie Altermatt said she does not expect the SNB to raise rates immediately from their current 0%, citing steady core inflation. She said the risk of a rise before Julius Baer's September 2027 baseline had increased.
