Pfizer’s VESPER-3 trial for its monthly GLP-1 candidate MET-097i delivered placebo-adjusted weight loss of up to 12.3% at 28 weeks, matching efficacy levels reported by leading rivals. The Phase IIb results showed continuous, no-plateau weight reduction after patients switched from weekly to monthly dosing, with only mild to moderate gastrointestinal side effects reported. These data position Pfizer to challenge Novo Nordisk’s daily oral pill entrant and Eli Lilly’s weekly injectable in a market projected to exceed $75 billion by 2030, prompting Citi to reaffirm a neutral stance on Novo Nordisk as investor focus shifts to Pfizer’s late-stage obesity franchise.

In the fourth quarter, Pfizer delivered adjusted EPS of $0.66, surpassing consensus by nine cents, while reported revenues were down 1% year-over-year on an operational basis. The decline was driven by 35% lower COVID vaccine volumes and a 70% drop in its antiviral therapy, but core portfolio growth of 9% was led by a 136% surge in adult RSV vaccine sales and double-digit gains in oncology biosimilars. Management noted that excluding pandemic-related products, underlying revenues expanded across heart failure therapies, pneumococcal vaccines and its leading blood-thinner franchise.

Trading at approximately nine times forward earnings versus a mid-20s multiple for the broader market, Pfizer offers a 6.6% dividend yield that far exceeds the S&P 500 average. With shares down nearly 15% over the past three years following pandemic highs, patient investors could be rewarded if at least half of the more than 20 pivotal Phase III studies slated for 2026 deliver positive outcomes. Analysts highlight the risk/reward favoring a recovery in trial readouts, especially in oncology and obesity, where late-stage catalysts are concentrated.

Facing key patent expirations on its Xeljanz franchise next year and on its flagship blood-thinner in two years, Pfizer is advancing a 102-candidate pipeline spanning oncology, rare disease, inflammation and preventive vaccines. The company plans to initiate ten Phase III oncology studies in 2026 and to expand its metabolic portfolio with combination regimens pairing MET-097i with dual-agonist compounds. Management believes this robust development engine can offset revenue erosion from expiring exclusivities, targeting a low-single-digit operational revenue decline in 2027 rather than a steep cliff.