Pfizer’s shares declined by 6% over 2025, underperforming the broader pharmaceutical sector despite intermittent rallies during the year. Trading volume averaged 63 million shares per day, highlighting sustained investor interest even as the company grappled with patent expirations and uncertainty over its COVID-19 product demand. Gross margins held at approximately 69%, supported by stable manufacturing efficiency, while the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 suggested that market valuations may already reflect the company’s near-term challenges.

Investors are focusing on data readouts from two Phase 2b studies—Vesper-2 and Vesper-3—evaluating MET-097i in type 2 diabetes, with results expected in Q1 2026. This asset, acquired through November 2025’s deal for up to $10 billion, follows promising Vesper-1 data and could unlock a significant opportunity in the obesity and metabolic disease market projected to exceed $100 billion by the end of the decade. Success in these trials would bolster confidence in Pfizer’s ability to replenish revenues lost to expiring exclusivities.

Management has issued guidance calling for full-year revenues between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, with the midpoint slightly below 2025 projections. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to decline by roughly 5.7% year-over-year at the midpoint, despite planned cost-savings initiatives. The headwinds include a projected $1.5 billion revenue reduction from COVID-19 product sales and another $1.5 billion impact from products losing market exclusivity, foreshadowing intensified pressure from the patent cliff in 2027 when several oncology and cardiovascular blockbusters face generic entry.

To diversify its pipeline, Pfizer inked a licensing agreement in December with a China-based biotech for an early-stage GLP-1 candidate, featuring up to $2.1 billion in milestones and royalties. This complements the Metsera acquisition and aligns with forecasts from Grand View Research that the GLP-1 receptor agonist market could reach $200 billion by 2033. Combined with the 2023 acquisition of Seagen for $43 billion, these deals signal management’s commitment to pivot toward high-growth therapeutic areas and aim to restore mid-single-digit revenue growth by the latter half of the decade.