Polestar downgraded after cutting FY26 delivery outlook to 66,720 vehicles
Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded Polestar to Underweight after the EV maker cut its FY26 delivery outlook to 66,720 vehicles, trimming projected revenue by 16% to about $3.7B. With $995M liquidity, a $124M monthly cash burn and anticipated need to raise over $6B through 2030, Polestar faces funding and tariff headwinds.
1. Delivery Outlook Revision
Polestar cut its FY26 delivery outlook from 80,720 vehicles to 66,720, lowering expected volume growth to low double digits versus the prior 30%–35% CAGR target for 2025–2027. Cantor Fitzgerald viewed the revision as a material reset and downgraded the stock to Underweight.
2. Financial Forecast Impact
The guidance change implies a 16% revenue reduction for FY26, bringing projections down to about $3.7B from $4.4B. In Q3 2025, Polestar reported $748M in revenue, up 36% year over year, but recorded a negative 6.1% gross margin and a $259M adjusted EBITDA loss, while holding $995M in liquidity and burning roughly $124M per month.
3. Operational and Strategic Risks
Tariff exposure from Chinese and South Korean production and an unclear autonomy strategy remain key overhangs, with Polestar expected to need over $6B in fresh capital by mid-2030. The company plans to launch the Polestar 5 grand tourer in summer 2026 and a redesigned Polestar 2 in the first half of 2027.