Prairie Operating’s EBITDA Slightly Below $240M Target; Exits 2025 at 28,000 BOE/d
Prairie Operating’s Q4 2025 EBITDA came in below its $240 million target and share count climbed from the low-60 million range after preferred share conversions, raising dilution risks. The company exited 2025 at a record 28,000 net BOE/d but forecasts Q1 2026 production around 23,000 BOE/d due to maintenance shut-ins.
1. Q4 2025 Financial Results
Prairie Operating reported adjusted EBITDA modestly below its $240 million guidance for full-year 2025, and revenue also fell short of internal forecasts. The company’s share count rose from the low-60 million range after conversions of preferred shares, introducing potential dilution for common shareholders.
2. Production Exit Rate and Outlook
Prairie exited 2025 at a production rate of approximately 28,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day, up significantly year-over-year. First-quarter 2026 output is expected to average around 23,000 BOE/d due to planned maintenance shut-ins, with a gradual ramp-up as new wells come online.
3. Well Performance Updates
The Opal Cobank wells outperformed expectations, while the Noble wells experienced delays and reduced rates due to offset fracking activities. Equipment constraints slowed the Simpson wells early on, but performance is now aligning with forecasted rates.
4. Capital Structure and Cash Flow Priorities
Management secured an extension on preferred share refinancing discussions while prioritizing balance-sheet strengthening, increased liquidity and deleveraging. The company remains open to accretive acquisitions and foresees no midstream or gathering constraints through 2027 thanks to established partnerships.