Prediction Markets Drive 60% Share Decline in Flutter Entertainment
FLUT•Flutter Entertainment's share price has plunged roughly 60% year-to-date as prediction markets erode FanDuel's market share. The company reported revenue of $16.4 billion in 2025 but forecasts just $18.4 billion and $2.97 billion adjusted EBITDA for 2026, signaling a 12% growth rate below prior-year gains.
1. Market Share Erosion
Flutter Entertainment's share price has fallen roughly 60% year-to-date as fan-driven prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi siphon users away from FanDuel's platform, challenging the traditional sportsbook model.
2. Strong 2025 Revenue Growth
The company reported revenue of $16.4 billion in 2025, a 16.6% increase from $14 billion in 2024, driven by robust sportsbook performance during major sporting events.
3. 2026 Guidance Misses Expectations
For 2026, Flutter forecasts $18.4 billion in revenue and $2.97 billion in adjusted EBITDA, a 12% growth rate that lags both its prior-year gains and analysts' projections.
4. Peer-to-Peer Model Advantages
Prediction markets operate as peer-to-peer exchanges with fees as low as 1.2%, compared with the 7–10% fees and risk absorption carried by traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel.
