Predictions Show 84% Chance of No Credit Card Cap; Capital One Warns Recession Risk
Over $225,000 has been wagered on a Kalshi contract showing an 84% probability that credit card rates will not be capped before Jan. 1, 2027. Capital One’s CEO warns a proposed 10% rate cap could shrink credit access and risk triggering a recession affecting $6 trillion in consumer spending.
1. Prediction Market Data
Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, has seen over $225,000 wagered on whether credit card rates will be capped before Jan. 1, 2027. Initial support for a cap has dwindled, with current probability estimates at just 18% for a cap and 84% against, reflecting market skepticism about any regulatory intervention this year.
2. Capital One CEO Recession Warning
Capital One’s CEO cautioned that capping rates at 10% could lead to reduced credit availability and undermine card rewards programs. He warned such a cap risks triggering a recession by disrupting up to $6 trillion of consumer spending dependent on credit cards.