Morgan Stanley Slashes Oracle Target $100, Stock Falls Half as Bulls Eye $400
Oracle shares have fallen more than 50%, trading below $170 after Morgan Stanley cut its price target by over $100 to $213 due to concerns about AI data-center costs and heavy debt. Bulls like Guggenheim’s John DeFucci argue Oracle’s 'bring-your-own-chip' model and AI infrastructure expansion could support a $400 target.
1. Institutional Investors Increase Stakes
Principal Financial Group Inc. expanded its position in Oracle during Q3, acquiring an additional 172,624 shares to reach a total holding of 2.44 million shares, representing 0.09% of the company’s outstanding stock and valued at approximately $687 million at the time of filing. In Q2, Vanguard Group added 3.35 million shares (up 2.1%), bringing its total to 164.28 million shares, while State Street boosted its stake by 1.7% to 73.46 million shares. New entrants included Norges Bank, which invested roughly $4.28 billion in Oracle during the quarter. Together, institutional investors and hedge funds now control 42.44% of the company.
2. Analyst Ratings Show Divergence
Over the past six months, three firms have issued strong buy recommendations on Oracle, 25 have maintained buy ratings, 11 have assigned hold ratings and two have issued sell ratings, resulting in an average consensus of Moderate Buy. Notable price target revisions include increases by Stephens (from 208 to 331) and reductions by Sanford C. Bernstein (from 364 to 339) and Morgan Stanley (from 320 to 213). Mizuho reaffirmed its target at 400, while William Blair maintained an outperform view. The current average target across analysts stands at 300.46.
3. Solid Earnings Growth And Dividend Policy
In its latest quarter, Oracle reported year-over-year revenue growth of 14.2%, with non-GAAP earnings per share of 2.26, outperforming consensus estimates by 0.62. Return on equity reached 70.6% and net margin was 25.3%. The company declared a quarterly dividend of 50 cents per share, marking an annualized payout of $2.00 and a payout ratio of 37.6%, with record date set for early January and payment late in the month. Institutional investors continue to emphasize cash flow generation and return of capital in their outlooks.