Progressive Scales Premiums to $65.5B While Maintaining 92.2% Combined Ratio
Progressive delivered a 92.2% average combined ratio over 2014–2024 and scaled gross written premiums from $19.6B to $65.5B while keeping its expense ratio under 20%. Analyst sentiment is balanced with two sell, twelve hold, seven buy and one strong buy ratings resulting in a consensus Hold.
1. Underwriting Discipline and Long-Term Growth
Progressive has delivered a decade-long average combined ratio of 92.2% while scaling gross written premiums from $19.6 billion in 2014 to $65.5 billion in 2024. Its expense ratio has consistently stayed below 20%, underpinning durable underwriting profitability through insurance cycles. In the first nine months of 2025, net premiums written rose 13% year-over-year to $63.7 billion, and net premiums earned climbed 17% to $60.6 billion. At the end of the third quarter, the company reported 38.1 million policies in force, up 12% from the prior year, and achieved an underwriting profit with a combined ratio of 89.5% for the quarter.
2. Analyst Recommendations and Target Prices
Among 22 brokerages covering the company, two recommend selling, twelve recommend holding, seven recommend buying, and one recommends a strong buy, resulting in a consensus rating of Hold. The average 12-month target price across these firms is $260.74. Recent analyst actions include Morgan Stanley reaffirming an Underweight view, Citigroup adjusting its target from $301.38 to $300.60 with a Buy rating, Zacks Research moving from Strong Buy to Hold, Goldman Sachs establishing a $227.00 target, and Barclays upgrading to Overweight while raising its target from $257.00 to $265.00.
3. Insider and Institutional Activity
In late 2025, CFO John P. Sauerland sold 5,000 shares for proceeds of $1.14 million and now holds 223,024 shares valued at approximately $50.96 million, a 2.19% reduction in his stake. President Steven Broz sold 1,344 shares for $302,131, reducing his position by 4.85% to 26,354 shares worth about $5.92 million. Over the past three months, insiders have sold 9,034 shares totaling $2.05 million and now own 0.34% of outstanding shares. Meanwhile, institutional investors hold 85.34% of the stock. Notable fourth-quarter moves include Brighton Jones LLC increasing its position by 15.6% to 3,392 shares (valued at $813,000), Revolve Wealth Partners establishing a $269,000 position, Bison Wealth LLC adding 80 shares to reach 2,568 (worth $615,000), HBW Advisory Services LLC boosting its stake by 37.5% to 1,695 shares (worth $452,000), and TrueWealth Advisors LLC raising its holding by 14.5% to 2,543 shares (worth $678,000).