Prologis Q4 Leasing Jumps 57M Sq Ft, Occupancy Hits 95.8%

PLDPLD

BMO Capital assigned a $123 price target for Prologis, implying roughly 4% downside from recent levels. The company signed 57 million square feet of Q4 leases, boosting occupancy to 95.8% as national industrial vacancy held at 7.1% and net absorption increased 16.3% year-over-year.

1. Surge in Leasing Activity and Elevated Occupancy

Prologis reported an exceptional fourth-quarter performance in leasing, securing 57 million square feet of new commitments, a 35% increase year over year. This volume propelled its global industrial portfolio’s occupancy to 95.8%, up from 94.1% in the prior quarter. Notably, key markets in Southern California and Northern Europe registered occupancy gains of 120 and 85 basis points respectively, underscoring robust demand from e-commerce and consumer-goods clients.

2. U.S. Industrial Market Resilience and Net Absorption

According to Cushman & Wakefield data, the U.S. industrial vacancy rate held steady at 7.1% for a third consecutive quarter, reflecting balanced supply additions. Full-year net absorption climbed to 176.8 million square feet, a 16.3% increase versus the prior year, driven by major logistics tenants in the Northeast and Central regions. Secondary markets, including Indianapolis and Central Florida, saw absorption growth exceeding 20%, signaling broad-based strength.

3. Core FFO Guidance and Financial Outlook

Building on improved cash flow visibility, Prologis issued 2026 core funds from operations guidance of $6.00 to $6.20 per share, representing mid-single-digit growth over 2025. The company emphasized disciplined capital deployment and forecasted same-store net operating income growth of approximately 6% for the year. Management highlighted that sustained leasing momentum and low rollover risk should underpin FFO stability.

4. Strategic Capital Deployment and Data Center Expansion

In 2025, Prologis achieved a record 228 million square feet of leases signed and expanded its data center power pipeline to 5.7 gigawatts, surpassing its prior target. Development starts totaled $3.0 billion, with build-to-suit projects representing nearly half of that activity. The company also secured $3.0 billion of long-term financing at an average interest rate near 3.1%, bolstering liquidity and supporting targeted solar and battery storage installations across key logistics hubs.

Sources

ZWWSZ
+5 more