Jefferies analysts warn that a sustained high oil price environment will pressure net importers in Southeast Asia. The Philippines, with a high fuel weighting in its consumer price index, risks a sharply wider current account deficit, while Thailand’s state Oil Fund faces rising subsidy costs as global benchmarks remain elevated.

A U.S. intelligence assessment finds a large-scale American-led assault is unlikely to topple Iran, indicating a protracted conflict. This outlook keeps geopolitical risk premiums on crude prices elevated, heightening the risk of extended supply disruptions through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.